#include #include // rand() #include //time() // Possible further improvements: // - exchange factor 0.2 for draw calculate by a random number between e.g. 0.1 and 0.2 or even better calculate it somehow --> what could be a proper value? // - replace hard coded enum, ranking and groups with data using API // - fouls and cards in statistics -> influence on pressure and morale // - API-Data: number of total world cup wins // - API-Data: specific player scores // - API-Data: include current standings // - additional statistics like penalty kicks (missed or goal), shots on goal, ... // - outsource random computation of goals to another function (less copy&paste) // - score_stats based on total goals/wins? // - adjust weights in score calculation; calculate the weights somehow? or just random? // - possibility for high amount of goals in a match should be lower (not uniform like rand() gives) // - add graphical sample output (sample World Cup, just for the eye) // - had little time in the end so it might look messy at some parts // -------- IDEAS -------- // every input needs: // - countries (or its index) // - some calculated score // based on this score, calculate a probability to win a match // How to calculate this score? What parameters should be used? // - world rank // - number of wins, goals, etc. during one world cup simulation // - team spirit, morale // How to model team spirit/moral? // - random values // - pressure (win neccessary in group phase?) // - amount of goals (own goals and enemy goals) // combination with different weights // ----------------------- // set country IDs (starting from 0) enum countries{ Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Costa_Rica, Croatia, Denmark, Egypt, England, France, Germany, Iceland, Iran, Japan, Korea_Republic, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi_Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, num_countries // as indexed from 0, it stores the number of elements }; // late addition: define word strings, as you can't get the names from enum... const char* country_names[] = {"Argentina", "Australia", "Belgium", "Brazil", "Columbia", "Costa Rica", "Croatia", "Denmark", "Egypt", "England", "France", "Germany", "Iceland", "Iran", "Japan", "Korea Republic", "Mexico", "Morocco", "Nigeria", "Panama", "Peru", "Poland", "Portugal", "Russia", "Saudi Arabia", "Senegal", "Serbia", "Spain", "Sweden", "Switzerland", "Tunisia", "Uruguay"}; // set current world rank const unsigned int rankings[num_countries] = { 5, // Argentina 36, // Australia 3, // Belgium 2, // Brazil 16, // Columbia 23, // Costa_Rica 20, // Croatia 12, // Denkmark 45, // Egypt 12, // England 7, // France 1, // Germany 22, // Iceland 37, // Iran 61, // Japan 57, // Korea_Republic 15, // Mexico 41, // Morocco 48, // Nigeria 55, // Panama 11, // Peru 8, // Poland 4, // Portugal 70, // Russia 67, // Saudi_Arabia 27, // Senegal 34, // Serbia 10, // Spain 24, // Sweden 6, // Switzerland 21, // Tunisia 14 // Uruguay }; // because something like below does not work (can only fill array in main) // int rankings[num_countries]; // rankings[Argentina] = 5; // rankings[Australia] = 36; // ... // define groups const int group_A[4] = {Egypt, Russia, Saudi_Arabia, Uruguay}; const int group_B[4] = {Iran, Morocco, Portugal, Spain}; const int group_C[4] = {Australia, Denmark, France, Peru}; const int group_D[4] = {Argentina, Croatia, Iceland, Nigeria}; const int group_E[4] = {Brazil, Costa_Rica, Serbia, Switzerland}; const int group_F[4] = {Germany, Korea_Republic, Mexico, Sweden}; const int group_G[4] = {Belgium, England, Panama, Tunisia}; const int group_H[4] = {Colombia, Japan, Poland, Senegal}; // group pointer const int* groups[8] = {group_A, group_B, group_C, group_D, group_E, group_F, group_G, group_H}; // statistics // win, draw, loss, GF (own goals), GA (enemy goals), pts (points), place (placement in the corresponding group) // first three only needed for group phase int stats[num_countries][10] = {0}; // also enum to make indexing easier enum stats_words{ win, draw, loss, GF, GA, pts, place, total_first, total_second, total_third, num_stats // total number of statistic entries(columns) }; // calculate a random number between 0 and 1 double r_01(){ return ((double) rand() / (double) RAND_MAX); } // score based on rank double score_rank(int country){ unsigned int max_rank = 100; double scale_factor = 100; unsigned int country_rank = rankings[country]; // score should be between 0 and 1 return (max_rank-country_rank)/scale_factor; } // score based on wins and goals double score_stats(int country){ // adjust weights for wins and goals? //return (0.5*stats[country][win] + 0.5*stats[country][GF]); // want to have something between 0 and 1 // win-factor double win_factor = 0.0; double num_wins = (double) stats[country][win]; if(num_wins > 0){ win_factor = num_wins/(num_wins + stats[country][loss]); } // goals factor int goal_factor = 0.0; double num_goals = (double) stats[country][GF]; if(num_goals > 0){ goal_factor = num_goals/(num_goals + stats[country][GA]); } return (0.5*win_factor + 0.5*goal_factor); } // score based on morale double score_morale(int country){ // random motivation (form of the day) double rand_mot = r_01(); double morale = score_stats(country); return (0.8*rand_mot + 0.2*morale); } // calculate score double score_total(int country){ // add all separate scores // separate socres must be between 0 and 1 to ensure comparability // this total score does NOT have to be in that range, because we later just use it to calculate a probability from it, which is again between 0 and 1 // also here: try different weights (e.g. calculate them somehow, or random?) double total_score = 0.0; total_score += 1.0 * score_rank(country); total_score += 1.0 * score_stats(country); total_score += 3.0 * score_morale(country); // make a bit higher, so that Germany does not win that often... // deos not seem to yield such a hudge influence though return total_score; } // calculate outcome // using the following scheme: // score_A + score_B // probability of A to win: score_A/(score_A + score_B) // probability of B to win: score_B/(score_A + score_B) // prob B is not calculated, because prob_B = 1 - prob_A // choose a random number between 0 and 1 // if in range (0,prob_A) --> Team A wins // if in range (prob_A,1) --> Team B wins // special case for group phase, where a draw is possible: // use smaller prob to get a range for a prob of a draw // e.g. if prob_B is smaller (prob_B < 0.5) // k = (1-prob_A)*0.2; //where 0.2 is choosen randomly // else k = prob_A*0.2; // choose a random number // if in range (0,prob_A-k) --> Team A wins // if in range (prob_A-k,prob_A+k) --> draw // if in range (prob_A+k,1) --> Team B wins int calculate_outcome(int A, int B, bool group_phase){ //input: A, B countries (index) // group_phase 1 if math in group phase, else 0 //output: 1 for win, -1 for loss, 0 for draw with respect to Team A // get score of Team A and B double score_A = score_total(A); double score_B = score_total(B); // offset for draws double k = 0.0; // calculate the probability of Team A to win double prob_A = score_A/(score_A + score_B); // set offset if match in group phase if (group_phase){ k = (prob_A<0.5) ? (prob_A*0.2) : ((1-prob_A)*0.2); } // get a random number between 0 and 1 // determines if Team A wins or not double r = r_01(); // get a random number between 0 and 5 for the scored goals of the weaker team int r_goal_min = rand()%6; if(r>=0 && rprob_A+k){ //Team A looses //get number of goals (must be smaller than from Team B) //but rand()%r_goal_min has possible zero division -> use min for Team A //maximum 5 goals difference int r_goal_B = rand()%5 + r_goal_min + 1; // update statistics stats[A][loss] += 1; // loss stats[A][GF] += r_goal_min; // add number of goals stats[A][GA] += r_goal_B; // add number of enemy goals stats[B][win] += 1; // win stats[B][GF] += r_goal_B; // add number of goals stats[B][GA] += r_goal_min; // add number of enemy goals stats[B][pts] += 3; // points after group match irrelevant return -1; } else {return 1000;} // improve error handling here } // group placement void group_placement(){ int max_pts = -100000; int pts_last_best = 100000; int country = 0; for(int i=0; i<8; i++){ // iterate through each group for(int j=0; j<4; j++){ // iterate through each member for the group // most important are the points // if points are equal, take the team with most goal difference // if this is also equal, take the team with highest total amount of goals // in very rare cases this also might be equal -> look up how to deal in such cases, ignore for now by comparing with >= instead of > below // problem: still same placement (same number) // one of them will get kicked out, but so rare that additional evaluation might be a overkill now; actually this whole code is, lol country = groups[i][j]; stats[country][pts] = 1000*stats[country][pts] + 10*(stats[country][GF]-stats[country][GA]) + stats[country][GF]; } for(int k=0; k<4; k++){ // this loop to set first, second, third, fourth for(int j=0; j<4; j++){ country = groups[i][j]; if(stats[country][pts] >= max_pts && pts_last_best > stats[country][pts]){ stats[country][place] = k+1; max_pts = stats[country][pts]; } } pts_last_best = max_pts; // upper bound from first, second or third max_pts = -100000; //reset } // reset for next group pts_last_best = 100000; max_pts = -100000; } } // group game simulator void group_game(){ //input: //output: country index of the two winners // everyone against everyone else (6 matches in each group) for(int i=0; i<8; i++){ calculate_outcome(groups[i][0], groups[i][1], true); calculate_outcome(groups[i][0], groups[i][2], true); calculate_outcome(groups[i][0], groups[i][3], true); calculate_outcome(groups[i][1], groups[i][2], true); calculate_outcome(groups[i][1], groups[i][3], true); calculate_outcome(groups[i][2], groups[i][3], true); } } // extract first and second from a group // replace by vector or so, to get two ints as output int get_place(const int* group, int placement){ int idx = -1; for(int j=0; j<4; j++){ if(stats[group[j]][place] == placement){ idx = group[j]; } } if(idx==-1){ std::cout<<"something went wrong...\n Maybe wrong placements were set"< find better solution if more time R16_1 = ((calculate_outcome(C1, D2, false) == 1)? C1 : D2); R16_2 = ((calculate_outcome(A1, B2, false) == 1)? A1 : B2); R16_3 = ((calculate_outcome(B1, A2, false) == 1)? B1 : A2); R16_4 = ((calculate_outcome(D1, C2, false) == 1)? D1 : C2); R16_5 = ((calculate_outcome(E1, F2, false) == 1)? E1 : F2); R16_6 = ((calculate_outcome(G1, H2, false) == 1)? G1 : H2); R16_7 = ((calculate_outcome(F1, E2, false) == 1)? F1 : E2); R16_8 = ((calculate_outcome(H1, G2, false) == 1)? H1 : G2); } // round of 8, aka quarter finals void round_8(){ //int R16_1, R16_2, R16_3, R16_4, R16_5, R16_6, R16_7, R16_8; //play and set winners R8_1 = ((calculate_outcome(R16_1, R16_2, false) == 1)? R16_1 : R16_2); R8_2 = ((calculate_outcome(R16_5, R16_6, false) == 1)? R16_5 : R16_6); R8_3 = ((calculate_outcome(R16_7, R16_8, false) == 1)? R16_7 : R16_8); R8_4 = ((calculate_outcome(R16_3, R16_4, false) == 1)? R16_3 : R16_4); } // semi final void semi_final(){ //play and set winners if(calculate_outcome(R8_1, R8_2, false) == 1){ SF_1_w = R8_1; SF_1_l = R8_2; } else{ SF_1_w = R8_2; SF_1_l = R8_1; } if(calculate_outcome(R8_3, R8_4, false) == 1){ SF_2_w = R8_3; SF_2_l = R8_4; } else{ SF_2_w = R8_4; SF_2_l = R8_3; } } // 3rd place void third_place(){ third = ((calculate_outcome(SF_1_l, SF_2_l, false) == 1)? SF_1_l : SF_2_l); // store in stats stats[third][total_third] += 1; } // final void final_game(){ if(calculate_outcome(SF_1_w, SF_2_w, false) == 1){ first = SF_1_w; second = SF_2_w; } else{ first = SF_2_w; second = SF_1_w; } // store in stats stats[first][total_first] += 1; stats[second][total_second] += 1; } // set all variables to zero for next run void set_to_zero(){ A1 = A2 = B1 = B2 = C1 = C2 = D1 = D2 = 0; E1 = E2 = F1 = F2 = G1 = G2 = H1 = H2 = 0; R16_1 = R16_2 = R16_3 = R16_4 = R16_5 = R16_6 = R16_7 = R16_8 = 0; R8_1 = R8_2 = R8_3 = R8_4 = 0; SF_1_w = SF_2_w = 0; SF_1_l = SF_2_l = 0; third = second = first = 0; // set statistics to zero, except the last three entries, containing the counts for first, second and third place for(int i=0; i max_first){ max_first = stats[i][total_first]; country_max_first = i; } if(stats[i][total_second] > max_second){ max_second = stats[i][total_second]; country_max_second = i; } if(stats[i][total_third] > max_third){ max_third = stats[i][total_third]; country_max_third = i; } } std::cout<<"most 1st place: "<

FIFA World Cup 2018 - Contest